What the Iraqi election results reveal 2025-11-12 13:08:56   NEWS CENTER – Halit Ermiş wrote an analysis on the recent elections in Iraq, said the country is once again on the brink of a transitional period, adding that “Iraq once again stands at a crossroads. How it moves forward depends not only on Baghdad’s internal equilibrium but also on the stances of Tehran, Washington, and Ankara.”   Iraq went to the polls on November 11 to elect its parliament. Reporting from the region, journalist Halit Ermiş authored a piece for Fırat News Agency (ANF) analyzing the outcome of the elections.   Ermiş’s article, titled “Iraq: Elections are over but the real struggle begins now,” reads as follows:   “On 11 November 2025, Iraq held its sixth parliamentary elections. The election process took place under the shadow of boycotts and security concerns. On election day, this manifested as low voter turnout. According to the initial statements by Iraq’s High Electoral Commission, turnout was around 50%. In comparison, turnout in 2021 was 43.5%. Although participation rose slightly this time, nearly half of registered voters still stayed away from the polls.   In nation-state systems, elections are the most direct way for citizens to participate in governance. But when nearly half the population chooses not to vote, it must be seen as a striking expression of the public’s loss of confidence in the political system.   The official results have not yet been released. Even so, initial data and field observations suggest that the Shiite Coordination Framework will emerge as the leading coalition nationwide. The government will likely be formed under its leadership, though it will still need to collaborate with other alliances.   On the Sunni side, the Sunni Taqaddum (Progress) Alliance and several independent groups could become a key balancing force in parliament based on their vote share and expected number of seats. The Kurds, who ran in separate blocs, remain a significant power when considered collectively, but their internal divisions may reduce their proportional influence during the government formation process.   According to Iraq’s constitution, a government must be formed within 120 days. If no agreement is reached during that period, the process may again become deadlocked. The coming weeks will determine both the course of government formation and the overall direction of Iraq’s political landscape.   AN ELECTION AMID CRISES    The elections were held at a time of deep economic difficulties, service shortages, and institutional fatigue. During Prime Minister Sudani’s tenure, economic indicators remained unstable. Meanwhile, rising unemployment and ongoing security issues were major factors dampening public interest in politics.   In an environment where state institutions have lost effectiveness, many voters went to the polls, or chose not to, with a sense of frustration or protest. That sentiment may best explain the results.   Iraq’s post-2005 political system, based on sectarian and ethnic representation, has over time turned from a culture of democratic consensus into a competition over power-sharing. The structural rifts between Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish blocs have deepened divisions. Politics has been reduced to a struggle for power rather than a tool for public service. Political diversity, instead of enriching democracy, has become a source of instability.   In the 2025 elections, Kurds again dominated in regions centered around Hewlêr (Erbil), Duhok, and Sulaymaniyah; Shiite parties led in Najaf, Karbala, Basra, and the Baghdad area; and Sunni parties prevailed in Anbar, Nineveh, and Salahaddin. Yet voter turnout continued its post-Saddam downward trajectory. By the time of writing, turnout stood around 50%, though this figure may change once the official results are confirmed.   The post-election distribution of votes by group will likely resemble that of 2021. However, one major difference within the Shiite camp was the boycott by the Sadrist Movement. Whether this will lead to significantly lower participation in Shiite-majority areas remains to be seen once official results are released.   Sadr argued that the process had “lost its legitimacy” due to corruption and a rotten political system. His movement, which won 73 seats in 2021, withdrew all its MPs from parliament after failing to form a government with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Mohammed al-Halbousi’s Sunni Taqaddum Alliance.   EXTERNAL FACTORS AND REGIONAL TENSIONS   As in the post-Saddam era, Iraq today remains at the center of regional power struggles. Iran and the United States continue to compete for influence using different methods. Iran seeks to preserve its leverage through Shiite militias and political parties, while the U.S. has intensified military and diplomatic pressure to curb Iranian influence.   Despite all the shifting power balances, one constant remains: Iraq’s strategic importance. The Gaza war that began in 2023 and the Iran–Israel clashes in 2024 once again underscored Iraq’s geopolitical significance. During this period, Washington began repositioning Iraq as a key strategic balancing actor.   While the U.S. has pushed for the integration of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) groups into the regular army, Iran views this as a threat to its influence. In the tense autumn of 2024, the U.S. added three PMF factions, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib Hezbollah, and Harakat al-Nujaba, to its terrorist list. This move served as a warning not only to Iraq’s Shiite ruling elites but also to Tehran. Iran, in turn, strengthened its economic and military agreements with Baghdad to maintain influence. Prime Minister Sudani’s government, caught between the two powers, has so far managed to survive through a delicate balancing policy.   IRAQ'S FRAGILE BALANCE   Held amid internal and external pressures, these elections will test Iraq’s institutional stability once again. The Coordination Framework’s likely victory will show that Iran-aligned Shiite parties remain powerful. Yet any drop in their vote share will signal that this influence has limits. On the Sunni front, Halbousi’s Taqaddum Alliance maintained a strong presence in the west, while Kurdish politics continues to be defined by the rivalry between the KDP and PUK. This landscape points to a new bargaining phase in which each bloc depends on the others to form a government. The new president, prime minister, and cabinet composition will become clear in the coming weeks as these mutual dependencies play out.   RELATIONS WITH TURKEY   The Iraqi elections are being closely watched by Turkey, for which Iraq holds strategic importance in terms of energy, border security, Kurdish policy, and the Turkmen minority. Ankara views Kurdish autonomy as a security threat and seeks to limit it through its close ties with Baghdad. The inclusion of the PKK on Iraq’s “banned organizations” list is seen as a product of this policy.   Recently, Turkey has also expanded its influence over Turkmen groups, providing them with economic and logistical support. Its diplomatic and military contacts with Sunni factions aim both to counterbalance Kurdish influence and to expand Ankara’s regional reach via Iraq.   AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE   The 11 November elections show that Iraq’s quest for stability remains unresolved. Despite a slight rise in voter turnout, public trust in politics remains weak. Persistent foreign interference continues to deepen the system’s crisis of legitimacy.   Even before official results are announced, it seems clear that no single force will be able to form a government alone. This makes prolonged and difficult coalition negotiations inevitable.   Iraq once again stands at a crossroads. How it moves forward depends not only on Baghdad’s internal equilibrium but also on the stances of Tehran, Washington, and Ankara. The elections are over, but Iraq’s real struggle is only just beginning.   That nearly half the electorate stayed home should be read as a powerful warning from the Iraqi people to all political forces. Issues such as development, anti-corruption, and government transparency were scarcely debated during the campaign. The same “absence of politics” is also visible in Iraq’s relations with its neighbors and international powers.   In conclusion, Iraq has completed its sixth parliamentary elections but remains far from confronting its fundamental problems. The slight increase in voter participation shows that hope is not completely extinguished, yet the country still lacks the political vision needed to overcome its crisis of confidence and stability."